SpaceX has demonstrated repeated Super Heavy booster catches and V3 flight successes with improved heat shields and Raptor 3 performance through mid-2026, yet the Starship upper stage has not yet been tower-caught or reflown. Recent delays to Flight 14, now targeted for September, pushed the first ship catch attempt to several months out, while Elon Musk’s August statements projected the initial ship reflight for late 2026 or early 2027. These timelines, combined with the absence of demonstrated orbital refueling at operational scale and historical schedule slips, underpin trader consensus favoring “No” on full rapid reusability of both stages before 2027, with the next regulatory-approved flight serving as the key near-term catalyst.