Recent diplomatic efforts, including talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders aimed at reopening the waterway, combined with Iran's gradual rollout of a managed transit mechanism, underpin the 76.5% market-implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes by year-end. Following the February 2026 closure amid regional conflict and the subsequent ceasefire, daily transits have risen from near-zero levels to selective flows—primarily coordinated vessels from China and other non-Western partners—while overall throughput remains at roughly 5-10% of the typical 60-ship daily average. This incremental easing reflects Iran's use of passage approvals for political leverage, alongside U.S. naval support to deter further disruption, which traders interpret as reducing the risk of prolonged shutdown. Key near-term catalysts include continued bilateral negotiations and any expansion of permitted routes, which could accelerate recovery in global oil and LNG supply chains without triggering renewed escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$137,655 交易量
$137,655 交易量
2026-12-31
$137,655 交易量
$137,655 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent diplomatic efforts, including talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders aimed at reopening the waterway, combined with Iran's gradual rollout of a managed transit mechanism, underpin the 76.5% market-implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes by year-end. Following the February 2026 closure amid regional conflict and the subsequent ceasefire, daily transits have risen from near-zero levels to selective flows—primarily coordinated vessels from China and other non-Western partners—while overall throughput remains at roughly 5-10% of the typical 60-ship daily average. This incremental easing reflects Iran's use of passage approvals for political leverage, alongside U.S. naval support to deter further disruption, which traders interpret as reducing the risk of prolonged shutdown. Key near-term catalysts include continued bilateral negotiations and any expansion of permitted routes, which could accelerate recovery in global oil and LNG supply chains without triggering renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
交易量
$137,655結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent diplomatic efforts, including talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders aimed at reopening the waterway, combined with Iran's gradual rollout of a managed transit mechanism, underpin the 76.5% market-implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes by year-end. Following the February 2026 closure amid regional conflict and the subsequent ceasefire, daily transits have risen from near-zero levels to selective flows—primarily coordinated vessels from China and other non-Western partners—while overall throughput remains at roughly 5-10% of the typical 60-ship daily average. This incremental easing reflects Iran's use of passage approvals for political leverage, alongside U.S. naval support to deter further disruption, which traders interpret as reducing the risk of prolonged shutdown. Key near-term catalysts include continued bilateral negotiations and any expansion of permitted routes, which could accelerate recovery in global oil and LNG supply chains without triggering renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$137,767結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic efforts, including talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders aimed at reopening the waterway, combined with Iran's gradual rollout of a managed transit mechanism, underpin the 76.5% market-implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes by year-end. Following the February 2026 closure amid regional conflict and the subsequent ceasefire, daily transits have risen from near-zero levels to selective flows—primarily coordinated vessels from China and other non-Western partners—while overall throughput remains at roughly 5-10% of the typical 60-ship daily average. This incremental easing reflects Iran's use of passage approvals for political leverage, alongside U.S. naval support to deter further disruption, which traders interpret as reducing the risk of prolonged shutdown. Key near-term catalysts include continued bilateral negotiations and any expansion of permitted routes, which could accelerate recovery in global oil and LNG supply chains without triggering renewed escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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