Trader consensus reflects a 94% implied probability for "No" on Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by May 31, driven by the stark impasse in ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's continued stockpile of highly enriched uranium—over 400 kg at 60% purity as of early 2026—amid limited agency access to facilities damaged in prior strikes, with no verified halt. Two days ago, Iran threatened to escalate to 90% weapons-grade enrichment if US airstrikes resume, while Secretary of State Rubio reiterated demands for proof against nuclear weapon intent on May 5. Despite April proposals for a 20-year moratorium and intermittent diplomatic signals, Tehran insists on its right to peaceful enrichment, leaving substantial barriers with just over two weeks until the deadline. Late-breaking concessions or summits could shift odds, but historical negotiation patterns favor stagnation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$603,146 交易量
$603,146 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$603,146 交易量
$603,146 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 94% implied probability for "No" on Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by May 31, driven by the stark impasse in ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's continued stockpile of highly enriched uranium—over 400 kg at 60% purity as of early 2026—amid limited agency access to facilities damaged in prior strikes, with no verified halt. Two days ago, Iran threatened to escalate to 90% weapons-grade enrichment if US airstrikes resume, while Secretary of State Rubio reiterated demands for proof against nuclear weapon intent on May 5. Despite April proposals for a 20-year moratorium and intermittent diplomatic signals, Tehran insists on its right to peaceful enrichment, leaving substantial barriers with just over two weeks until the deadline. Late-breaking concessions or summits could shift odds, but historical negotiation patterns favor stagnation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
交易量
$603,146結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 94% implied probability for "No" on Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by May 31, driven by the stark impasse in ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's continued stockpile of highly enriched uranium—over 400 kg at 60% purity as of early 2026—amid limited agency access to facilities damaged in prior strikes, with no verified halt. Two days ago, Iran threatened to escalate to 90% weapons-grade enrichment if US airstrikes resume, while Secretary of State Rubio reiterated demands for proof against nuclear weapon intent on May 5. Despite April proposals for a 20-year moratorium and intermittent diplomatic signals, Tehran insists on its right to peaceful enrichment, leaving substantial barriers with just over two weeks until the deadline. Late-breaking concessions or summits could shift odds, but historical negotiation patterns favor stagnation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$603,147結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 94% implied probability for "No" on Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by May 31, driven by the stark impasse in ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's continued stockpile of highly enriched uranium—over 400 kg at 60% purity as of early 2026—amid limited agency access to facilities damaged in prior strikes, with no verified halt. Two days ago, Iran threatened to escalate to 90% weapons-grade enrichment if US airstrikes resume, while Secretary of State Rubio reiterated demands for proof against nuclear weapon intent on May 5. Despite April proposals for a 20-year moratorium and intermittent diplomatic signals, Tehran insists on its right to peaceful enrichment, leaving substantial barriers with just over two weeks until the deadline. Late-breaking concessions or summits could shift odds, but historical negotiation patterns favor stagnation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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