The absence of any Department of Justice action or confirmed investigation under the Foreign Agents Registration Act explains the 98% trader consensus against an arrest by May 31. Tucker Carlson's March 2026 public claims of a potential CIA criminal referral tied to his Iran contacts prompted swift dismissals from Trump administration officials, with no grand jury proceedings, indictments, or warrants emerging in the ensuing weeks. Historical enforcement patterns for such referrals require extensive evidence and time, barriers reinforced by the lack of momentum here. With roughly two weeks remaining, late disclosures, a special counsel appointment, or sudden diplomatic escalations could theoretically shift the outcome, though current institutional and evidentiary realities continue to anchor near-certain expectations that no arrest will occur.