Turkey’s ruling alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360 needed to advance a constitutional amendment to referendum or the 400 required to enact changes without one. Recent statements from presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum and other AKP figures indicate that drafting a full new constitution remains unlikely in the current 28th legislative period, with completion more probable in the next parliament. Ongoing focus on the PKK peace process and related legislation has consumed legislative bandwidth without producing a referendum timetable. Traders therefore assign an implied 79 percent probability that no constitutional referendum will be formally announced before the end of 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於17% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
17% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360 needed to advance a constitutional amendment to referendum or the 400 required to enact changes without one. Recent statements from presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum and other AKP figures indicate that drafting a full new constitution remains unlikely in the current 28th legislative period, with completion more probable in the next parliament. Ongoing focus on the PKK peace process and related legislation has consumed legislative bandwidth without producing a referendum timetable. Traders therefore assign an implied 79 percent probability that no constitutional referendum will be formally announced before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$6,794結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360 needed to advance a constitutional amendment to referendum or the 400 required to enact changes without one. Recent statements from presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum and other AKP figures indicate that drafting a full new constitution remains unlikely in the current 28th legislative period, with completion more probable in the next parliament. Ongoing focus on the PKK peace process and related legislation has consumed legislative bandwidth without producing a referendum timetable. Traders therefore assign an implied 79 percent probability that no constitutional referendum will be formally announced before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,794結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360 needed to advance a constitutional amendment to referendum or the 400 required to enact changes without one. Recent statements from presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum and other AKP figures indicate that drafting a full new constitution remains unlikely in the current 28th legislative period, with completion more probable in the next parliament. Ongoing focus on the PKK peace process and related legislation has consumed legislative bandwidth without producing a referendum timetable. Traders therefore assign an implied 79 percent probability that no constitutional referendum will be formally announced before the end of 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions