Traders assign a 95.6 percent probability against a U.S.-China tariff agreement by June 30, 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and the incremental pace of bilateral talks. Existing suspensions of reciprocal tariffs, extended through November 2026 under the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement, remove immediate pressure for new concessions, while the Board of Trade and Investment established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit focuses on longer-term frameworks covering roughly $30 billion in goods rather than rapid, comprehensive reductions. No official announcements or deadlines point to a breakthrough in the next two weeks. A late diplomatic statement, accelerated working-level progress on the $30 billion package, or an unforeseen external shock could still shift the outcome before the cutoff, though current developments indicate low likelihood.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$28,786 交易量
$28,786 交易量
2026-06-30
$28,786 交易量
$28,786 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 95.6 percent probability against a U.S.-China tariff agreement by June 30, 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and the incremental pace of bilateral talks. Existing suspensions of reciprocal tariffs, extended through November 2026 under the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement, remove immediate pressure for new concessions, while the Board of Trade and Investment established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit focuses on longer-term frameworks covering roughly $30 billion in goods rather than rapid, comprehensive reductions. No official announcements or deadlines point to a breakthrough in the next two weeks. A late diplomatic statement, accelerated working-level progress on the $30 billion package, or an unforeseen external shock could still shift the outcome before the cutoff, though current developments indicate low likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市場開放時間： May 26, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
交易量
$28,786結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 95.6 percent probability against a U.S.-China tariff agreement by June 30, 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and the incremental pace of bilateral talks. Existing suspensions of reciprocal tariffs, extended through November 2026 under the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement, remove immediate pressure for new concessions, while the Board of Trade and Investment established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit focuses on longer-term frameworks covering roughly $30 billion in goods rather than rapid, comprehensive reductions. No official announcements or deadlines point to a breakthrough in the next two weeks. A late diplomatic statement, accelerated working-level progress on the $30 billion package, or an unforeseen external shock could still shift the outcome before the cutoff, though current developments indicate low likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$28,786結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.6 percent probability against a U.S.-China tariff agreement by June 30, 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and the incremental pace of bilateral talks. Existing suspensions of reciprocal tariffs, extended through November 2026 under the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement, remove immediate pressure for new concessions, while the Board of Trade and Investment established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit focuses on longer-term frameworks covering roughly $30 billion in goods rather than rapid, comprehensive reductions. No official announcements or deadlines point to a breakthrough in the next two weeks. A late diplomatic statement, accelerated working-level progress on the $30 billion package, or an unforeseen external shock could still shift the outcome before the cutoff, though current developments indicate low likelihood.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions