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萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統?

icon for 萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統?

萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統?

12% 機率
Polymarket

$15,768 交易量

12% 機率
Polymarket

$15,768 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice. Vice President JD Vance has repeatedly stated that any decision on a 2028 Republican presidential bid will occur with his wife after the November 2026 midterms, while emphasizing focus on his current duties and Trump's supportive stance without direct pressure. Recent interviews confirm he avoids early commitments, pushes back on speculation by clarifying he is "not a potential future candidate" yet, and has engaged in early-state travel that sustains contender status. Isolated reports of political isolation or reconsideration lack confirmation and have been dismissed by his office, leaving no verified developments that would prompt a withdrawal announcement before year-end. Trader consensus at 78% reflects these signals that Vance is preserving flexibility rather than closing the door this year.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
交易量
$15,768
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice. Vice President JD Vance has repeatedly stated that any decision on a 2028 Republican presidential bid will occur with his wife after the November 2026 midterms, while emphasizing focus on his current duties and Trump's supportive stance without direct pressure. Recent interviews confirm he avoids early commitments, pushes back on speculation by clarifying he is "not a potential future candidate" yet, and has engaged in early-state travel that sustains contender status. Isolated reports of political isolation or reconsideration lack confirmation and have been dismissed by his office, leaving no verified developments that would prompt a withdrawal announcement before year-end. Trader consensus at 78% reflects these signals that Vance is preserving flexibility rather than closing the door this year.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
交易量
$15,768
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "范斯宣布他今年不會在2028年參選總統?" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 12¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 12% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統?" has generated $15.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統?" is "范斯宣布他今年不會在2028年參選總統?" at 12%, meaning the market assigns a 12% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.