Traders assign a 96% probability against Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027 primarily because the U.S. Constitution's natural-born citizen requirement bars individuals born outside the United States, such as Musk in South Africa, from eligibility. Musk has repeatedly stated he has no plans to seek the office and remains focused on private-sector roles in technology, space, and government efficiency initiatives. This structural barrier, combined with consistent public positioning, underpins the market consensus reflected in current pricing. Late shifts could occur only if Musk reversed his stated intentions or if unforeseen legal reinterpretations emerged, though both remain distant possibilities within the resolution window.