Recent hotter-than-expected CPI prints, including the April 2026 report showing year-over-year inflation at 3.3 percent amid elevated energy prices, have anchored trader expectations around a 3.75 percent federal funds rate by year-end 2026, with 59.7 percent implied probability on Polymarket. This pricing reflects the FOMC’s April decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent and its characterization of inflation as “somewhat elevated,” reinforced by stable labor-market data and limited progress toward the 2 percent goal. Market-implied odds for 4.0 percent have risen to 17.4 percent as participants price in the possibility of modest hikes if core PCE remains above 2.7 percent through midyear. With Powell’s term expiring in May and the June FOMC meeting ahead, futures markets now assign low odds to cuts, favoring a higher-for-longer stance consistent with recent dot-plot revisions and Treasury yield movements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於3.75% 59.7%
4.0% 17.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,795 交易量
$6,523,795 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
60%
4.0%
17%
4.25%
6%
大於或等於4.5%
1%
3.75% 59.7%
4.0% 17.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,795 交易量
$6,523,795 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
$216,014 交易量
<1%
1.25
$134,363 交易量
1%
1.5%
$134,117 交易量
<1%
1.75%
$134,015 交易量
1%
2.0%
$246,062 交易量
<1%
2.25%
$70,849 交易量
<1%
2.5%
$158,852 交易量
1%
2.75%
$46,024 交易量
1%
3.0%
$454,840 交易量
4%
3.25%
$51,537 交易量
8%
3.5%
$190,202 交易量
7%
3.75%
$518,453 交易量
60%
4.0%
$1,358,661 交易量
17%
4.25%
$413,730 交易量
6%
大於或等於4.5%
$2,396,078 交易量
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected CPI prints, including the April 2026 report showing year-over-year inflation at 3.3 percent amid elevated energy prices, have anchored trader expectations around a 3.75 percent federal funds rate by year-end 2026, with 59.7 percent implied probability on Polymarket. This pricing reflects the FOMC’s April decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent and its characterization of inflation as “somewhat elevated,” reinforced by stable labor-market data and limited progress toward the 2 percent goal. Market-implied odds for 4.0 percent have risen to 17.4 percent as participants price in the possibility of modest hikes if core PCE remains above 2.7 percent through midyear. With Powell’s term expiring in May and the June FOMC meeting ahead, futures markets now assign low odds to cuts, favoring a higher-for-longer stance consistent with recent dot-plot revisions and Treasury yield movements.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
市場開放時間： Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$6,523,795結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected CPI prints, including the April 2026 report showing year-over-year inflation at 3.3 percent amid elevated energy prices, have anchored trader expectations around a 3.75 percent federal funds rate by year-end 2026, with 59.7 percent implied probability on Polymarket. This pricing reflects the FOMC’s April decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent and its characterization of inflation as “somewhat elevated,” reinforced by stable labor-market data and limited progress toward the 2 percent goal. Market-implied odds for 4.0 percent have risen to 17.4 percent as participants price in the possibility of modest hikes if core PCE remains above 2.7 percent through midyear. With Powell’s term expiring in May and the June FOMC meeting ahead, futures markets now assign low odds to cuts, favoring a higher-for-longer stance consistent with recent dot-plot revisions and Treasury yield movements.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
交易量
$6,523,795結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected CPI prints, including the April 2026 report showing year-over-year inflation at 3.3 percent amid elevated energy prices, have anchored trader expectations around a 3.75 percent federal funds rate by year-end 2026, with 59.7 percent implied probability on Polymarket. This pricing reflects the FOMC’s April decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent and its characterization of inflation as “somewhat elevated,” reinforced by stable labor-market data and limited progress toward the 2 percent goal. Market-implied odds for 4.0 percent have risen to 17.4 percent as participants price in the possibility of modest hikes if core PCE remains above 2.7 percent through midyear. With Powell’s term expiring in May and the June FOMC meeting ahead, futures markets now assign low odds to cuts, favoring a higher-for-longer stance consistent with recent dot-plot revisions and Treasury yield movements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions