No Democratic candidates have formally announced 2028 presidential campaigns as of early August 2026, leaving “Other” as the leading outcome at 50%. Trader positioning favors Andy Beshear at 28.5% after his recent public comments weighing a bid following the midterm elections, ahead of Gavin Newsom at 19.6% who has similarly signaled interest while deferring decisions until after November. Kamala Harris trails at 12.5% despite earlier acknowledgments of considering another run, while Pete Buttigieg and Ro Khanna register lower amid their own exploratory signals. The wide dispersion across listed names and heavy weighting on unspecified entrants reflects an open field where early positioning, primary calendar changes, and post-2026 midterm timing remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of any formal declarations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於安迪·貝希爾 29%
加文·紐森 19.7%
卡馬拉·哈里斯 13%
皮特·布塔朱吉 12%
最新
最新
2028-12-31
安迪·貝希爾
29%
加文·紐森
20%
卡馬拉·哈里斯
13%
皮特·布塔朱吉
12%
羅·卡納
9%
Rahm Emanuel
8%
喬什·夏皮羅
4%
喬恩·奧索夫
2%
亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特茲
2%
Jon Stewart
<1%
史蒂芬·A·史密斯
<1%
安迪·貝希爾 29%
加文·紐森 19.7%
卡馬拉·哈里斯 13%
皮特·布塔朱吉 12%
最新
最新
2028-12-31
安迪·貝希爾
$1,880 交易量
29%
加文·紐森
$2,758 交易量
20%
卡馬拉·哈里斯
$504 交易量
13%
皮特·布塔朱吉
$580 交易量
12%
羅·卡納
$383 交易量
9%
Rahm Emanuel
$512 交易量
8%
喬什·夏皮羅
$306 交易量
4%
喬恩·奧索夫
$306 交易量
2%
亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特茲
$391 交易量
2%
Jon Stewart
$364 交易量
<1%
史蒂芬·A·史密斯
$284 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No Democratic candidates have formally announced 2028 presidential campaigns as of early August 2026, leaving “Other” as the leading outcome at 50%. Trader positioning favors Andy Beshear at 28.5% after his recent public comments weighing a bid following the midterm elections, ahead of Gavin Newsom at 19.6% who has similarly signaled interest while deferring decisions until after November. Kamala Harris trails at 12.5% despite earlier acknowledgments of considering another run, while Pete Buttigieg and Ro Khanna register lower amid their own exploratory signals. The wide dispersion across listed names and heavy weighting on unspecified entrants reflects an open field where early positioning, primary calendar changes, and post-2026 midterm timing remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of any formal declarations.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET
交易量
$8,270結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No Democratic candidates have formally announced 2028 presidential campaigns as of early August 2026, leaving “Other” as the leading outcome at 50%. Trader positioning favors Andy Beshear at 28.5% after his recent public comments weighing a bid following the midterm elections, ahead of Gavin Newsom at 19.6% who has similarly signaled interest while deferring decisions until after November. Kamala Harris trails at 12.5% despite earlier acknowledgments of considering another run, while Pete Buttigieg and Ro Khanna register lower amid their own exploratory signals. The wide dispersion across listed names and heavy weighting on unspecified entrants reflects an open field where early positioning, primary calendar changes, and post-2026 midterm timing remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of any formal declarations.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$8,270結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...No Democratic candidates have formally announced 2028 presidential campaigns as of early August 2026, leaving “Other” as the leading outcome at 50%. Trader positioning favors Andy Beshear at 28.5% after his recent public comments weighing a bid following the midterm elections, ahead of Gavin Newsom at 19.6% who has similarly signaled interest while deferring decisions until after November. Kamala Harris trails at 12.5% despite earlier acknowledgments of considering another run, while Pete Buttigieg and Ro Khanna register lower amid their own exploratory signals. The wide dispersion across listed names and heavy weighting on unspecified entrants reflects an open field where early positioning, primary calendar changes, and post-2026 midterm timing remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of any formal declarations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions