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世界·全球選舉

任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？

icon for 任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？
世界·全球選舉

任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？

是

6% 機率
Polymarket

$47,000 交易量

是

6% 機率
Polymarket

$47,000 交易量

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls place leading candidate Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact at 38–44 percent support ahead of the May 31 first round, well short of the majority needed for an outright victory under Colombia’s two-round system. The remaining vote is fragmented among right-wing contenders Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, each polling near 20 percent, plus several lower-tier candidates who together exceed 15 percent. This distribution mirrors historical patterns in which no candidate has secured an absolute majority since the current electoral rules took effect, sustaining trader consensus that a June 21 runoff between the top two finishers is the probable outcome.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
交易量
$47,000
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2025, 1:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls place leading candidate Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact at 38–44 percent support ahead of the May 31 first round, well short of the majority needed for an outright victory under Colombia’s two-round system. The remaining vote is fragmented among right-wing contenders Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, each polling near 20 percent, plus several lower-tier candidates who together exceed 15 percent. This distribution mirrors historical patterns in which no candidate has secured an absolute majority since the current electoral rules took effect, sustaining trader consensus that a June 21 runoff between the top two finishers is the probable outcome.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
交易量
$47,000
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2025, 1:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "哥倫比亞總統選舉中會有候選人在第一輪直接獲勝嗎？" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？" has generated $47K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？" is "哥倫比亞總統選舉中會有候選人在第一輪直接獲勝嗎？" at just 6%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.