The intensifying federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk’s breach-of-charitable-trust claims against Sam Altman and OpenAI has driven the 74% market-implied probability against settlement. After Musk’s pre-trial outreach to Greg Brockman yielded no agreement, closing arguments wrapped last week and a nine-person jury is now deliberating remedies that could include Altman’s removal and up to $150 billion in damages tied to OpenAI’s shift from nonprofit AI research to a capped-profit structure valued at roughly $850 billion. Deep personal and strategic rifts—exposed through testimony on the 2018 founder split and Altman’s business dealings—have hardened positions, while the proximity of a verdict leaves little room for last-minute compromise before resolution criteria are met.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$11,081 交易量
$11,081 交易量
2026-12-31
$11,081 交易量
$11,081 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The intensifying federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk’s breach-of-charitable-trust claims against Sam Altman and OpenAI has driven the 74% market-implied probability against settlement. After Musk’s pre-trial outreach to Greg Brockman yielded no agreement, closing arguments wrapped last week and a nine-person jury is now deliberating remedies that could include Altman’s removal and up to $150 billion in damages tied to OpenAI’s shift from nonprofit AI research to a capped-profit structure valued at roughly $850 billion. Deep personal and strategic rifts—exposed through testimony on the 2018 founder split and Altman’s business dealings—have hardened positions, while the proximity of a verdict leaves little room for last-minute compromise before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
交易量
$11,081結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The intensifying federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk’s breach-of-charitable-trust claims against Sam Altman and OpenAI has driven the 74% market-implied probability against settlement. After Musk’s pre-trial outreach to Greg Brockman yielded no agreement, closing arguments wrapped last week and a nine-person jury is now deliberating remedies that could include Altman’s removal and up to $150 billion in damages tied to OpenAI’s shift from nonprofit AI research to a capped-profit structure valued at roughly $850 billion. Deep personal and strategic rifts—exposed through testimony on the 2018 founder split and Altman’s business dealings—have hardened positions, while the proximity of a verdict leaves little room for last-minute compromise before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$11,081結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The intensifying federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk’s breach-of-charitable-trust claims against Sam Altman and OpenAI has driven the 74% market-implied probability against settlement. After Musk’s pre-trial outreach to Greg Brockman yielded no agreement, closing arguments wrapped last week and a nine-person jury is now deliberating remedies that could include Altman’s removal and up to $150 billion in damages tied to OpenAI’s shift from nonprofit AI research to a capped-profit structure valued at roughly $850 billion. Deep personal and strategic rifts—exposed through testimony on the 2018 founder split and Altman’s business dealings—have hardened positions, while the proximity of a verdict leaves little room for last-minute compromise before resolution criteria are met.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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