The ongoing federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk's claims that Sam Altman and OpenAI breached charitable trust commitments by shifting to a for-profit model has driven trader consensus toward no settlement at 69.5% implied probability. With closing arguments completed and a jury now deliberating on breach and unjust enrichment allegations tied to OpenAI's large language model development and Microsoft partnership, both sides appear entrenched amid Musk's multibillion-dollar damages demand. Pre-trial settlement signals from Musk in late April yielded no agreement, and recent testimony on self-dealing concerns has sustained the adversarial posture. A verdict expected as soon as next week could force further negotiations or appeals, though the current trajectory favors courtroom resolution over compromise before the December 2026 market close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$10,874 交易量
$10,874 交易量
2026-12-31
$10,874 交易量
$10,874 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk's claims that Sam Altman and OpenAI breached charitable trust commitments by shifting to a for-profit model has driven trader consensus toward no settlement at 69.5% implied probability. With closing arguments completed and a jury now deliberating on breach and unjust enrichment allegations tied to OpenAI's large language model development and Microsoft partnership, both sides appear entrenched amid Musk's multibillion-dollar damages demand. Pre-trial settlement signals from Musk in late April yielded no agreement, and recent testimony on self-dealing concerns has sustained the adversarial posture. A verdict expected as soon as next week could force further negotiations or appeals, though the current trajectory favors courtroom resolution over compromise before the December 2026 market close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
交易量
$10,874結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk's claims that Sam Altman and OpenAI breached charitable trust commitments by shifting to a for-profit model has driven trader consensus toward no settlement at 69.5% implied probability. With closing arguments completed and a jury now deliberating on breach and unjust enrichment allegations tied to OpenAI's large language model development and Microsoft partnership, both sides appear entrenched amid Musk's multibillion-dollar damages demand. Pre-trial settlement signals from Musk in late April yielded no agreement, and recent testimony on self-dealing concerns has sustained the adversarial posture. A verdict expected as soon as next week could force further negotiations or appeals, though the current trajectory favors courtroom resolution over compromise before the December 2026 market close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$10,874結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk's claims that Sam Altman and OpenAI breached charitable trust commitments by shifting to a for-profit model has driven trader consensus toward no settlement at 69.5% implied probability. With closing arguments completed and a jury now deliberating on breach and unjust enrichment allegations tied to OpenAI's large language model development and Microsoft partnership, both sides appear entrenched amid Musk's multibillion-dollar damages demand. Pre-trial settlement signals from Musk in late April yielded no agreement, and recent testimony on self-dealing concerns has sustained the adversarial posture. A verdict expected as soon as next week could force further negotiations or appeals, though the current trajectory favors courtroom resolution over compromise before the December 2026 market close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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