Russian forces have made only incremental gains in Kharkiv Oblast amid a broader focus on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk fronts, keeping Moskovka—a village near Kupiansk—well beyond current lines of control according to ISW mapping. Trader consensus prices the probability of any territorial capture by late 2026 dates in the low 20 percent range, reflecting persistent Ukrainian defensive adaptations, Russian manpower and logistics constraints, and the absence of major offensives directed at the Kupiansk axis. Scheduled Russian parliamentary elections and any subsequent mobilization decisions could influence resource allocation, while localized counterattacks or negotiated pauses remain the main variables that could shift positioning before resolution.