President Trump's early 2026 rhetoric on acquiring Greenland through purchase or pressure prompted brief speculation about force, yet he publicly ruled out military action by late January and shifted toward negotiations for expanded U.S. bases. Bipartisan congressional resistance, NATO alliance constraints under Article 5, Danish sovereignty assertions, and domestic polling showing overwhelming U.S. opposition have reinforced diplomatic channels as the primary approach. Existing U.S. military infrastructure in the territory and ongoing talks on Arctic security cooperation further reduce escalation risks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major Arctic security crisis involving Russia or China that alters threat assessments, though any forcible seizure would require congressional authorization and risk fracturing NATO.