Ukrainian long-range strikes have continued targeting Russian military assets in occupied Crimea through early May 2026, including Iskander missile sites, coastal radars, and airfields near Sevastopol and Yevpatoriya, while Russian forces reported net territorial losses elsewhere on the front in April. These operations have disrupted logistics and air defenses but produced no ground advances toward the peninsula. Entrenched Russian fortifications built since 2014, substantial troop concentrations, and the short remaining window before June 30 make an amphibious or overland recapture operation highly improbable under current battlefield conditions. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no resolution aligns with these structural barriers, though unforeseen escalations such as direct NATO involvement or a rapid collapse of Russian supply lines through the land corridor could theoretically alter the trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$658,459 交易量
$658,459 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$658,459 交易量
$658,459 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian long-range strikes have continued targeting Russian military assets in occupied Crimea through early May 2026, including Iskander missile sites, coastal radars, and airfields near Sevastopol and Yevpatoriya, while Russian forces reported net territorial losses elsewhere on the front in April. These operations have disrupted logistics and air defenses but produced no ground advances toward the peninsula. Entrenched Russian fortifications built since 2014, substantial troop concentrations, and the short remaining window before June 30 make an amphibious or overland recapture operation highly improbable under current battlefield conditions. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no resolution aligns with these structural barriers, though unforeseen escalations such as direct NATO involvement or a rapid collapse of Russian supply lines through the land corridor could theoretically alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
交易量
$658,459結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian long-range strikes have continued targeting Russian military assets in occupied Crimea through early May 2026, including Iskander missile sites, coastal radars, and airfields near Sevastopol and Yevpatoriya, while Russian forces reported net territorial losses elsewhere on the front in April. These operations have disrupted logistics and air defenses but produced no ground advances toward the peninsula. Entrenched Russian fortifications built since 2014, substantial troop concentrations, and the short remaining window before June 30 make an amphibious or overland recapture operation highly improbable under current battlefield conditions. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no resolution aligns with these structural barriers, though unforeseen escalations such as direct NATO involvement or a rapid collapse of Russian supply lines through the land corridor could theoretically alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
交易量
$658,459結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian long-range strikes have continued targeting Russian military assets in occupied Crimea through early May 2026, including Iskander missile sites, coastal radars, and airfields near Sevastopol and Yevpatoriya, while Russian forces reported net territorial losses elsewhere on the front in April. These operations have disrupted logistics and air defenses but produced no ground advances toward the peninsula. Entrenched Russian fortifications built since 2014, substantial troop concentrations, and the short remaining window before June 30 make an amphibious or overland recapture operation highly improbable under current battlefield conditions. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no resolution aligns with these structural barriers, though unforeseen escalations such as direct NATO involvement or a rapid collapse of Russian supply lines through the land corridor could theoretically alter the trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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