David Crowley secured a narrow Democratic nomination victory over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's August 11 gubernatorial primary, with early returns showing him ahead by roughly 3,000 votes or about 0.4 percentage points amid a crowded field that included Kelda Roys. The outcome defied pre-election polling that had positioned Hong as the frontrunner on progressive themes, reflecting instead stronger support for Crowley among establishment-aligned voters, bolstered by endorsements such as from term-limited Governor Tony Evers and turnout patterns in key counties. Traders have concentrated probability on the 0.4–0.6% Crowley margin bracket as final tallies and any remaining absentee or provisional ballots are processed, while residual shares on wider or opposing brackets account for lingering count uncertainties in this closely divided primary.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Crowley 0.4–0.6% 74%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 18%
Crowley 0.6–0.8% 4.6%
Crowley <0.2% 3.5%
最新
$33,319 交易量
最新
$33,319 交易量
2026-08-12
Hong 1%+
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
2%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
<1%
Hong <0.2%
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
3%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
18%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
74%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
5%
Crowley 0.8–1%
2%
Crowley 1–1.2%
1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
<1%
Crowley 2%+
<1%
Crowley 0.4–0.6% 74%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 18%
Crowley 0.6–0.8% 4.6%
Crowley <0.2% 3.5%
最新
$33,319 交易量
最新
$33,319 交易量
2026-08-12
Hong 1%+
$319 交易量
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
$232 交易量
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
$694 交易量
2%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
$716 交易量
1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
$749 交易量
<1%
Hong <0.2%
$576 交易量
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
$7,538 交易量
3%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
$2,647 交易量
18%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
$1,932 交易量
74%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
$4,310 交易量
5%
Crowley 0.8–1%
$3,602 交易量
2%
Crowley 1–1.2%
$4,894 交易量
1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
$1,138 交易量
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
$1,130 交易量
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
$1,139 交易量
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
$1,181 交易量
<1%
Crowley 2%+
$521 交易量
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured a narrow Democratic nomination victory over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's August 11 gubernatorial primary, with early returns showing him ahead by roughly 3,000 votes or about 0.4 percentage points amid a crowded field that included Kelda Roys. The outcome defied pre-election polling that had positioned Hong as the frontrunner on progressive themes, reflecting instead stronger support for Crowley among establishment-aligned voters, bolstered by endorsements such as from term-limited Governor Tony Evers and turnout patterns in key counties. Traders have concentrated probability on the 0.4–0.6% Crowley margin bracket as final tallies and any remaining absentee or provisional ballots are processed, while residual shares on wider or opposing brackets account for lingering count uncertainties in this closely divided primary.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
交易量
$33,319結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured a narrow Democratic nomination victory over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's August 11 gubernatorial primary, with early returns showing him ahead by roughly 3,000 votes or about 0.4 percentage points amid a crowded field that included Kelda Roys. The outcome defied pre-election polling that had positioned Hong as the frontrunner on progressive themes, reflecting instead stronger support for Crowley among establishment-aligned voters, bolstered by endorsements such as from term-limited Governor Tony Evers and turnout patterns in key counties. Traders have concentrated probability on the 0.4–0.6% Crowley margin bracket as final tallies and any remaining absentee or provisional ballots are processed, while residual shares on wider or opposing brackets account for lingering count uncertainties in this closely divided primary.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$33,319結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley secured a narrow Democratic nomination victory over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's August 11 gubernatorial primary, with early returns showing him ahead by roughly 3,000 votes or about 0.4 percentage points amid a crowded field that included Kelda Roys. The outcome defied pre-election polling that had positioned Hong as the frontrunner on progressive themes, reflecting instead stronger support for Crowley among establishment-aligned voters, bolstered by endorsements such as from term-limited Governor Tony Evers and turnout patterns in key counties. Traders have concentrated probability on the 0.4–0.6% Crowley margin bracket as final tallies and any remaining absentee or provisional ballots are processed, while residual shares on wider or opposing brackets account for lingering count uncertainties in this closely divided primary.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions