Persistent security threats in the Red Sea, including Houthi rebel warnings of resumed attacks following recent Middle East escalations and U.S.-Israel actions against Iran, continue to deter carriers from routing container vessels through the Suez Canal. Most major lines maintain Cape of Good Hope diversions, with January 2026 container transits at just 150—the lowest January level in a decade—and overall traffic remaining 60% below pre-crisis benchmarks through early 2026. This sustained rerouting, driven by crew safety and insurance considerations, has kept monthly volumes far below the roughly 333 needed on average to reach 2,000 transits in the six-month period. While a durable ceasefire and de-escalation could gradually restore some services before June, the compressed timeline and entrenched carrier caution make such a surge improbable.