Recent releases of more advanced Claude variants, including Opus 4.8 in late May and Fable 5 availability around June 9, have shifted trader expectations toward unlisted options, driving the 63% implied probability on "Other." The 37.6% on claude-opus-4-6-thinking reflects its established strength in coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and agentic workflows, yet newer iterations deliver incremental gains in consistency and autonomy that traders view as decisive by June 13. Gemini 3.1 Pro and related previews lag in market consensus due to narrower leads on core reasoning and multimodal tasks. Rapid model iteration cycles in frontier AI labs continue to favor whichever version ships closest to resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于其他 63.1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 37.2%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$26,795 交易量
$26,795 交易量
2026-06-13
其他
63%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
37%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
gemini-3.5-flash
<1%
其他 63.1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 37.2%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$26,795 交易量
$26,795 交易量
2026-06-13
其他
$11,427 交易量
63%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$7,863 交易量
37%
claude-opus-4-6
$4,038 交易量
<1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$1,819 交易量
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,090 交易量
<1%
gemini-3.5-flash
$858 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of more advanced Claude variants, including Opus 4.8 in late May and Fable 5 availability around June 9, have shifted trader expectations toward unlisted options, driving the 63% implied probability on "Other." The 37.6% on claude-opus-4-6-thinking reflects its established strength in coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and agentic workflows, yet newer iterations deliver incremental gains in consistency and autonomy that traders view as decisive by June 13. Gemini 3.1 Pro and related previews lag in market consensus due to narrower leads on core reasoning and multimodal tasks. Rapid model iteration cycles in frontier AI labs continue to favor whichever version ships closest to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
交易量
$26,795结束日期
2026-06-13市场开放时间
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of more advanced Claude variants, including Opus 4.8 in late May and Fable 5 availability around June 9, have shifted trader expectations toward unlisted options, driving the 63% implied probability on "Other." The 37.6% on claude-opus-4-6-thinking reflects its established strength in coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and agentic workflows, yet newer iterations deliver incremental gains in consistency and autonomy that traders view as decisive by June 13. Gemini 3.1 Pro and related previews lag in market consensus due to narrower leads on core reasoning and multimodal tasks. Rapid model iteration cycles in frontier AI labs continue to favor whichever version ships closest to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$26,795结束日期
2026-06-13市场开放时间
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent releases of more advanced Claude variants, including Opus 4.8 in late May and Fable 5 availability around June 9, have shifted trader expectations toward unlisted options, driving the 63% implied probability on "Other." The 37.6% on claude-opus-4-6-thinking reflects its established strength in coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and agentic workflows, yet newer iterations deliver incremental gains in consistency and autonomy that traders view as decisive by June 13. Gemini 3.1 Pro and related previews lag in market consensus due to narrower leads on core reasoning and multimodal tasks. Rapid model iteration cycles in frontier AI labs continue to favor whichever version ships closest to resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题