Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea, including vessel rammings, water cannon use, and floating barriers near Scarborough Shoal, have sustained bilateral tensions through early 2026. These incidents have prompted Philippine protests and allied naval drills such as Balikatan, yet both governments have prioritized direct talks via the Bilateral Consultative Mechanism, including recent exchanges on joint resource exploration and coast guard communications. Diplomatic channels, combined with Manila’s strengthened defense partnerships and Beijing’s interest in avoiding broader regional escalation, appear to have contained risks of direct armed confrontation. Traders assign an 80.5 percent probability to no military clash before 2027, viewing these patterns as evidence of continued crisis management over outright conflict.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$357,061 交易量
$357,061 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$357,061 交易量
$357,061 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea, including vessel rammings, water cannon use, and floating barriers near Scarborough Shoal, have sustained bilateral tensions through early 2026. These incidents have prompted Philippine protests and allied naval drills such as Balikatan, yet both governments have prioritized direct talks via the Bilateral Consultative Mechanism, including recent exchanges on joint resource exploration and coast guard communications. Diplomatic channels, combined with Manila’s strengthened defense partnerships and Beijing’s interest in avoiding broader regional escalation, appear to have contained risks of direct armed confrontation. Traders assign an 80.5 percent probability to no military clash before 2027, viewing these patterns as evidence of continued crisis management over outright conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
交易量
$357,061结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea, including vessel rammings, water cannon use, and floating barriers near Scarborough Shoal, have sustained bilateral tensions through early 2026. These incidents have prompted Philippine protests and allied naval drills such as Balikatan, yet both governments have prioritized direct talks via the Bilateral Consultative Mechanism, including recent exchanges on joint resource exploration and coast guard communications. Diplomatic channels, combined with Manila’s strengthened defense partnerships and Beijing’s interest in avoiding broader regional escalation, appear to have contained risks of direct armed confrontation. Traders assign an 80.5 percent probability to no military clash before 2027, viewing these patterns as evidence of continued crisis management over outright conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$357,061结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea, including vessel rammings, water cannon use, and floating barriers near Scarborough Shoal, have sustained bilateral tensions through early 2026. These incidents have prompted Philippine protests and allied naval drills such as Balikatan, yet both governments have prioritized direct talks via the Bilateral Consultative Mechanism, including recent exchanges on joint resource exploration and coast guard communications. Diplomatic channels, combined with Manila’s strengthened defense partnerships and Beijing’s interest in avoiding broader regional escalation, appear to have contained risks of direct armed confrontation. Traders assign an 80.5 percent probability to no military clash before 2027, viewing these patterns as evidence of continued crisis management over outright conflict.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题