Elon Musk’s recent X activity, averaging roughly 20–30 posts daily amid ongoing commentary on SpaceX launches, Tesla production, Grok updates, and AI topics, has anchored trader consensus around the 160–179 range at 58.5% implied probability. With the counting window closing August 18, partial tallies through mid-August show steady engagement without major spikes or quiet periods, aligning with his typical weekly volume. The 180–199 bin at 26.5% reflects the chance of a late surge from high-engagement threads, while lower brackets remain thin. Market positioning tracks verified posting cadence rather than speculation, with final resolution hinging on the next 24 hours of replies and original posts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于160-179 59%
180-199 27%
140-159 10.7%
200-219 2.6%
$1,865,821 交易量
$1,865,821 交易量
2026-08-18
140-159
11%
160-179
59%
180-199
27%
200-219
3%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 59%
180-199 27%
140-159 10.7%
200-219 2.6%
$1,865,821 交易量
$1,865,821 交易量
2026-08-18
140-159
$274,121 交易量
11%
160-179
$159,301 交易量
59%
180-199
$122,845 交易量
27%
200-219
$121,046 交易量
3%
220-239
$103,005 交易量
<1%
240-259
$131,069 交易量
<1%
260-279
$108,245 交易量
<1%
280-299
$91,008 交易量
<1%
300-319
$83,049 交易量
<1%
320-339
$43,368 交易量
<1%
340-359
$42,323 交易量
<1%
360-379
$29,969 交易量
<1%
380-399
$25,087 交易量
<1%
400-419
$22,118 交易量
<1%
420-439
$15,300 交易量
<1%
440-459
$15,044 交易量
<1%
460-479
$6,196 交易量
<1%
480-499
$5,696 交易量
<1%
500+
$43,869 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent X activity, averaging roughly 20–30 posts daily amid ongoing commentary on SpaceX launches, Tesla production, Grok updates, and AI topics, has anchored trader consensus around the 160–179 range at 58.5% implied probability. With the counting window closing August 18, partial tallies through mid-August show steady engagement without major spikes or quiet periods, aligning with his typical weekly volume. The 180–199 bin at 26.5% reflects the chance of a late surge from high-engagement threads, while lower brackets remain thin. Market positioning tracks verified posting cadence rather than speculation, with final resolution hinging on the next 24 hours of replies and original posts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
交易量
$1,865,821结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent X activity, averaging roughly 20–30 posts daily amid ongoing commentary on SpaceX launches, Tesla production, Grok updates, and AI topics, has anchored trader consensus around the 160–179 range at 58.5% implied probability. With the counting window closing August 18, partial tallies through mid-August show steady engagement without major spikes or quiet periods, aligning with his typical weekly volume. The 180–199 bin at 26.5% reflects the chance of a late surge from high-engagement threads, while lower brackets remain thin. Market positioning tracks verified posting cadence rather than speculation, with final resolution hinging on the next 24 hours of replies and original posts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$1,865,821结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s recent X activity, averaging roughly 20–30 posts daily amid ongoing commentary on SpaceX launches, Tesla production, Grok updates, and AI topics, has anchored trader consensus around the 160–179 range at 58.5% implied probability. With the counting window closing August 18, partial tallies through mid-August show steady engagement without major spikes or quiet periods, aligning with his typical weekly volume. The 180–199 bin at 26.5% reflects the chance of a late surge from high-engagement threads, while lower brackets remain thin. Market positioning tracks verified posting cadence rather than speculation, with final resolution hinging on the next 24 hours of replies and original posts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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