**Recent FBI actions in an ongoing sexual misconduct probe have intensified scrutiny on former Rep. Eric Swalwell without producing an arrest.** Multiple women, including a former staffer, have alleged sexual assault and rape dating back several years; these claims prompted Swalwell to resign from Congress and exit the California governor’s race in April 2026. The Department of Justice, Manhattan DA, and Los Angeles authorities opened parallel inquiries, with federal agents executing a search warrant at his Washington home and seizing electronic devices at San Francisco airport on August 15–16, 2026. Swalwell was briefly held for the device seizure but released the same day and has not been charged or detained. **These developments explain the 79% “No” pricing.** The August searches represent a procedural escalation typical of complex investigations, yet no indictment or arrest has followed, and such cases often require extended evidence review before any charging decision. With only weeks until the September 30 cutoff, traders view the timeline as too compressed for arrest absent a sudden breakthrough. Historical patterns in high-profile congressional misconduct probes further support the market’s assessment that resolution by the deadline remains improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
22% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
是
22% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent FBI actions in an ongoing sexual misconduct probe have intensified scrutiny on former Rep. Eric Swalwell without producing an arrest.** Multiple women, including a former staffer, have alleged sexual assault and rape dating back several years; these claims prompted Swalwell to resign from Congress and exit the California governor’s race in April 2026. The Department of Justice, Manhattan DA, and Los Angeles authorities opened parallel inquiries, with federal agents executing a search warrant at his Washington home and seizing electronic devices at San Francisco airport on August 15–16, 2026. Swalwell was briefly held for the device seizure but released the same day and has not been charged or detained.
**These developments explain the 79% “No” pricing.** The August searches represent a procedural escalation typical of complex investigations, yet no indictment or arrest has followed, and such cases often require extended evidence review before any charging decision. With only weeks until the September 30 cutoff, traders view the timeline as too compressed for arrest absent a sudden breakthrough. Historical patterns in high-profile congressional misconduct probes further support the market’s assessment that resolution by the deadline remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
交易量
$22结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent FBI actions in an ongoing sexual misconduct probe have intensified scrutiny on former Rep. Eric Swalwell without producing an arrest.** Multiple women, including a former staffer, have alleged sexual assault and rape dating back several years; these claims prompted Swalwell to resign from Congress and exit the California governor’s race in April 2026. The Department of Justice, Manhattan DA, and Los Angeles authorities opened parallel inquiries, with federal agents executing a search warrant at his Washington home and seizing electronic devices at San Francisco airport on August 15–16, 2026. Swalwell was briefly held for the device seizure but released the same day and has not been charged or detained.
**These developments explain the 79% “No” pricing.** The August searches represent a procedural escalation typical of complex investigations, yet no indictment or arrest has followed, and such cases often require extended evidence review before any charging decision. With only weeks until the September 30 cutoff, traders view the timeline as too compressed for arrest absent a sudden breakthrough. Historical patterns in high-profile congressional misconduct probes further support the market’s assessment that resolution by the deadline remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$22结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent FBI actions in an ongoing sexual misconduct probe have intensified scrutiny on former Rep. Eric Swalwell without producing an arrest.** Multiple women, including a former staffer, have alleged sexual assault and rape dating back several years; these claims prompted Swalwell to resign from Congress and exit the California governor’s race in April 2026. The Department of Justice, Manhattan DA, and Los Angeles authorities opened parallel inquiries, with federal agents executing a search warrant at his Washington home and seizing electronic devices at San Francisco airport on August 15–16, 2026. Swalwell was briefly held for the device seizure but released the same day and has not been charged or detained. **These developments explain the 79% “No” pricing.** The August searches represent a procedural escalation typical of complex investigations, yet no indictment or arrest has followed, and such cases often require extended evidence review before any charging decision. With only weeks until the September 30 cutoff, traders view the timeline as too compressed for arrest absent a sudden breakthrough. Historical patterns in high-profile congressional misconduct probes further support the market’s assessment that resolution by the deadline remains improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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