**Trader consensus pricing a 99.2% implied probability of no Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflects the absence of binding milestones in the reprivatization process.** Despite repeated administration signals since mid-2025 that an offering remains under consideration, no lead underwriters have been engaged, no definitive timeline or share structure has been finalized, and FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s expanded duties effective June 30 underscore shifting priorities. Exit from conservatorship requires coordinated regulatory approvals, resolution of the government’s senior preferred stake, and preservation of the implicit guarantee—steps that historically span years rather than weeks. Market-implied odds align with this base rate of delay. A last-minute acceleration could theoretically occur if political directives override logistical hurdles, but the compressed 12-day window renders such an outcome improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于No IPO by June 30, 2026 100.0%
<200B <1%
200–250B <1%
250–300B <1%
$401,635 交易量
$401,635 交易量
2026-06-30
<200B
<1%
200–250B
<1%
250–300B
<1%
300–350B
<1%
350–400B
<1%
400B+
<1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
100%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 100.0%
<200B <1%
200–250B <1%
250–300B <1%
$401,635 交易量
$401,635 交易量
2026-06-30
<200B
$63,799 交易量
<1%
200–250B
$67,616 交易量
<1%
250–300B
$24,164 交易量
<1%
300–350B
$117,309 交易量
<1%
350–400B
$22,415 交易量
<1%
400B+
$67,469 交易量
<1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$38,863 交易量
100%
This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.**Trader consensus pricing a 99.2% implied probability of no Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflects the absence of binding milestones in the reprivatization process.** Despite repeated administration signals since mid-2025 that an offering remains under consideration, no lead underwriters have been engaged, no definitive timeline or share structure has been finalized, and FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s expanded duties effective June 30 underscore shifting priorities. Exit from conservatorship requires coordinated regulatory approvals, resolution of the government’s senior preferred stake, and preservation of the implicit guarantee—steps that historically span years rather than weeks. Market-implied odds align with this base rate of delay. A last-minute acceleration could theoretically occur if political directives override logistical hurdles, but the compressed 12-day window renders such an outcome improbable.
This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2025, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$401,635结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.**Trader consensus pricing a 99.2% implied probability of no Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflects the absence of binding milestones in the reprivatization process.** Despite repeated administration signals since mid-2025 that an offering remains under consideration, no lead underwriters have been engaged, no definitive timeline or share structure has been finalized, and FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s expanded duties effective June 30 underscore shifting priorities. Exit from conservatorship requires coordinated regulatory approvals, resolution of the government’s senior preferred stake, and preservation of the implicit guarantee—steps that historically span years rather than weeks. Market-implied odds align with this base rate of delay. A last-minute acceleration could theoretically occur if political directives override logistical hurdles, but the compressed 12-day window renders such an outcome improbable.
This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$401,635结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus pricing a 99.2% implied probability of no Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflects the absence of binding milestones in the reprivatization process.** Despite repeated administration signals since mid-2025 that an offering remains under consideration, no lead underwriters have been engaged, no definitive timeline or share structure has been finalized, and FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s expanded duties effective June 30 underscore shifting priorities. Exit from conservatorship requires coordinated regulatory approvals, resolution of the government’s senior preferred stake, and preservation of the implicit guarantee—steps that historically span years rather than weeks. Market-implied odds align with this base rate of delay. A last-minute acceleration could theoretically occur if political directives override logistical hurdles, but the compressed 12-day window renders such an outcome improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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