Trader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月21日休斯顿的最高温度？
7月21日休斯顿的最高温度？
98-99°F 46%
100-101°F 25%
96-97°F 24%
94-95°F 6.7%
最新
$12,367 交易量
最新
$12,367 交易量
2026-07-21
85°F或以下
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
7%
96-97°F
24%
98-99°F
46%
100-101°F
25%
102-103°F
1%
104°F或更高
1%
98-99°F 46%
100-101°F 25%
96-97°F 24%
94-95°F 6.7%
最新
$12,367 交易量
最新
$12,367 交易量
2026-07-21
85°F或以下
$305 交易量
<1%
86-87°F
$305 交易量
<1%
88-89°F
$786 交易量
<1%
90-91°F
$1,899 交易量
<1%
92-93°F
$439 交易量
<1%
94-95°F
$950 交易量
7%
96-97°F
$3,411 交易量
24%
98-99°F
$1,415 交易量
46%
100-101°F
$1,416 交易量
25%
102-103°F
$1,106 交易量
1%
104°F或更高
$335 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 19, 2026, 9:09 PM ET
交易量
$12,367结束日期
2026-07-21市场开放时间
Jul 19, 2026, 9:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$12,367结束日期
2026-07-21市场开放时间
Jul 19, 2026, 9:09 PM ETTrader consensus centers on 98–99°F as the most probable high for Houston on July 21 because short-range forecast guidance from models such as the GFS and NAM indicates surface temperatures peaking slightly above the 95°F climatological normal amid light winds and abundant Gulf moisture. Afternoon convective cloud development and a possible weak sea-breeze front introduce the main uncertainty, potentially capping readings in the mid-90s or allowing brief clearing that supports upper-90s values. Historical analogs for late-July patterns show that modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of diurnal heating can easily shift the daily maximum by 3–5°F, explaining why the adjacent 96–97°F and 100–101°F bins also carry substantial implied probability while lower and higher extremes remain discounted.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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