Recent PAGASA forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to a daytime high of 31–33°C in Metro Manila on September 21, with light to moderate westerly winds, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity limiting peak heating. These conditions explain the tight market clustering around 32°C (32.5%) and 33°C (38.5%), as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing that could allow brief radiative warming versus persistent cloud cover and convective activity that caps temperatures near or below 32°C. Historical September baselines near 32°C and the current weak southwest monsoon flow provide context for the modest upside implied probability of 34°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and afternoon model runs tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift resolution odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月21日马尼拉的最高温度？
9月21日马尼拉的最高温度？
33°C 39%
32°C 32%
34°C 12%
31°C 10%
最新
$11,506 交易量
最新
$11,506 交易量
2026-09-21
28°C或以下
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
4%
31°C
10%
32°C
32%
33°C
39%
34°C
12%
35°C
<1%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C或更高
<1%
33°C 39%
32°C 32%
34°C 12%
31°C 10%
最新
$11,506 交易量
最新
$11,506 交易量
2026-09-21
28°C或以下
$158 交易量
2%
29°C
$333 交易量
2%
30°C
$527 交易量
4%
31°C
$4,067 交易量
10%
32°C
$2,236 交易量
32%
33°C
$2,650 交易量
39%
34°C
$1,220 交易量
12%
35°C
$202 交易量
<1%
36°C
$0 交易量
2%
37°C
$111 交易量
<1%
38°C或更高
$4 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to a daytime high of 31–33°C in Metro Manila on September 21, with light to moderate westerly winds, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity limiting peak heating. These conditions explain the tight market clustering around 32°C (32.5%) and 33°C (38.5%), as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing that could allow brief radiative warming versus persistent cloud cover and convective activity that caps temperatures near or below 32°C. Historical September baselines near 32°C and the current weak southwest monsoon flow provide context for the modest upside implied probability of 34°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and afternoon model runs tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
交易量
$11,506结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to a daytime high of 31–33°C in Metro Manila on September 21, with light to moderate westerly winds, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity limiting peak heating. These conditions explain the tight market clustering around 32°C (32.5%) and 33°C (38.5%), as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing that could allow brief radiative warming versus persistent cloud cover and convective activity that caps temperatures near or below 32°C. Historical September baselines near 32°C and the current weak southwest monsoon flow provide context for the modest upside implied probability of 34°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and afternoon model runs tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,506结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ETRecent PAGASA forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to a daytime high of 31–33°C in Metro Manila on September 21, with light to moderate westerly winds, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity limiting peak heating. These conditions explain the tight market clustering around 32°C (32.5%) and 33°C (38.5%), as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing that could allow brief radiative warming versus persistent cloud cover and convective activity that caps temperatures near or below 32°C. Historical September baselines near 32°C and the current weak southwest monsoon flow provide context for the modest upside implied probability of 34°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and afternoon model runs tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift resolution odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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