National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus for Miami on August 21 point to a daily maximum near 92–93°F under subtropical high pressure with light winds and ample insolation, aligning with the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability. Typical late-summer conditions feature highs of 89–92°F, occasionally moderated by sea-breeze convergence or scattered afternoon thunderstorms that reduce peak heating. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, with minimal tropical moisture or frontal influence expected to alter the outcome. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations tomorrow will provide the final verification against the 10 a.m.–10 p.m. local window used for resolution.