Recent ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models position 22–23°C as the most probable range for Moscow’s maximum temperature on August 21, aligning with late-summer climatology where average highs near 21–23°C. Persistent mid-level ridging and limited moisture advection have kept surface heating moderate, with predicted cloud cover and light precipitation further capping daytime peaks. Current runs show tight clustering around these values, though small shifts in frontal timing or boundary-layer mixing could nudge the outcome by 1°C. Traders appear to weight the consensus output heavily, producing the observed 77.5% combined probability on 22–23°C while assigning minimal odds to outliers beyond 24°C. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will provide the next key signal before resolution.