Recent short-range forecast guidance from New Zealand meteorological agencies points to a mild winter day in Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under a northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied 58.5 % probability on 16 °C and 28.5 % on 15 °C, reflecting model consensus around seasonal norms that average near 12–14 °C for early August. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest likelihood (45 %) to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, tempered by uncertainty in exact synoptic setup and potential for localized cooling from southerly changes. Traders appear to weigh these model runs against climatological baselines, with lower odds on extremes underscoring the narrow historical range of daily maxima this time of year. Updated MetService guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月3日惠灵顿的最高温度？
8月3日惠灵顿的最高温度？
16°C 56%
15°C 30%
17°C 12%
14°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
5%
15°C
30%
16°C
56%
17°C
12%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 56%
15°C 30%
17°C 12%
14°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
10°C or below
$417 交易量
<1%
11°C
$210 交易量
<1%
12°C
$300 交易量
<1%
13°C
$175 交易量
1%
14°C
$384 交易量
5%
15°C
$437 交易量
30%
16°C
$1,258 交易量
56%
17°C
$415 交易量
12%
18°C
$22 交易量
2%
19°C
$204 交易量
<1%
20°C or higher
$1 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast guidance from New Zealand meteorological agencies points to a mild winter day in Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under a northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied 58.5 % probability on 16 °C and 28.5 % on 15 °C, reflecting model consensus around seasonal norms that average near 12–14 °C for early August. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest likelihood (45 %) to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, tempered by uncertainty in exact synoptic setup and potential for localized cooling from southerly changes. Traders appear to weigh these model runs against climatological baselines, with lower odds on extremes underscoring the narrow historical range of daily maxima this time of year. Updated MetService guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$3,823结束日期
2026-08-03市场开放时间
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast guidance from New Zealand meteorological agencies points to a mild winter day in Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under a northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied 58.5 % probability on 16 °C and 28.5 % on 15 °C, reflecting model consensus around seasonal norms that average near 12–14 °C for early August. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest likelihood (45 %) to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, tempered by uncertainty in exact synoptic setup and potential for localized cooling from southerly changes. Traders appear to weigh these model runs against climatological baselines, with lower odds on extremes underscoring the narrow historical range of daily maxima this time of year. Updated MetService guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,823结束日期
2026-08-03市场开放时间
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETRecent short-range forecast guidance from New Zealand meteorological agencies points to a mild winter day in Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C under a northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This aligns with the market-implied 58.5 % probability on 16 °C and 28.5 % on 15 °C, reflecting model consensus around seasonal norms that average near 12–14 °C for early August. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest likelihood (45 %) to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, tempered by uncertainty in exact synoptic setup and potential for localized cooling from southerly changes. Traders appear to weigh these model runs against climatological baselines, with lower odds on extremes underscoring the narrow historical range of daily maxima this time of year. Updated MetService guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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