Trader consensus assigns an 87.5% implied probability to Khamenei issuing fewer than five posts during the May 12–19, 2026 window, driven by his longstanding pattern of infrequent official communications on X and other platforms. As Supreme Leader, he relies primarily on formal statements, Friday sermons, and curated releases through institutional channels rather than routine social media activity. No major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic policy announcements in the past week have prompted a departure from this baseline. Historical posting rates during comparable periods of regional stability or low-intensity tensions show similar restraint, with spikes occurring only after direct escalations involving Iran or its proxies. Higher-volume outcomes remain priced below 7% because sustained daily engagement would represent a structural shift inconsistent with his established role and communication preferences.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Khamenei # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?
Khamenei # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?
<5 86%
5-9 9%
15-19 3.6%
10-14 1.5%
$11,830 交易量
$11,830 交易量
2026-05-19
<5
86%
5-9
9%
10-14
1%
15-19
4%
20-24
1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 86%
5-9 9%
15-19 3.6%
10-14 1.5%
$11,830 交易量
$11,830 交易量
2026-05-19
<5
$2,263 交易量
86%
5-9
$1,991 交易量
9%
10-14
$981 交易量
1%
15-19
$1,493 交易量
4%
20-24
$946 交易量
1%
25-29
$401 交易量
1%
30-34
$458 交易量
1%
35-39
$443 交易量
<1%
40-44
$596 交易量
<1%
45-49
$484 交易量
1%
50-54
$498 交易量
1%
55-59
$609 交易量
<1%
60+
$666 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus assigns an 87.5% implied probability to Khamenei issuing fewer than five posts during the May 12–19, 2026 window, driven by his longstanding pattern of infrequent official communications on X and other platforms. As Supreme Leader, he relies primarily on formal statements, Friday sermons, and curated releases through institutional channels rather than routine social media activity. No major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic policy announcements in the past week have prompted a departure from this baseline. Historical posting rates during comparable periods of regional stability or low-intensity tensions show similar restraint, with spikes occurring only after direct escalations involving Iran or its proxies. Higher-volume outcomes remain priced below 7% because sustained daily engagement would represent a structural shift inconsistent with his established role and communication preferences.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ET
交易量
$11,830结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus assigns an 87.5% implied probability to Khamenei issuing fewer than five posts during the May 12–19, 2026 window, driven by his longstanding pattern of infrequent official communications on X and other platforms. As Supreme Leader, he relies primarily on formal statements, Friday sermons, and curated releases through institutional channels rather than routine social media activity. No major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic policy announcements in the past week have prompted a departure from this baseline. Historical posting rates during comparable periods of regional stability or low-intensity tensions show similar restraint, with spikes occurring only after direct escalations involving Iran or its proxies. Higher-volume outcomes remain priced below 7% because sustained daily engagement would represent a structural shift inconsistent with his established role and communication preferences.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$11,830结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns an 87.5% implied probability to Khamenei issuing fewer than five posts during the May 12–19, 2026 window, driven by his longstanding pattern of infrequent official communications on X and other platforms. As Supreme Leader, he relies primarily on formal statements, Friday sermons, and curated releases through institutional channels rather than routine social media activity. No major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic policy announcements in the past week have prompted a departure from this baseline. Historical posting rates during comparable periods of regional stability or low-intensity tensions show similar restraint, with spikes occurring only after direct escalations involving Iran or its proxies. Higher-volume outcomes remain priced below 7% because sustained daily engagement would represent a structural shift inconsistent with his established role and communication preferences.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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