Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s official X account maintains a measured posting cadence, issuing statements primarily on major policy positions, regional developments, or religious observances rather than routine commentary. Historical patterns show weekly output rarely exceeds a handful of items, consistent with the institutional role of the Supreme Leader. In the current May 12–19 window, no high-profile announcements, diplomatic escalations, or domestic events have prompted additional activity through mid-week, keeping volume low. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five posts, viewing this as the baseline expectation absent any sudden catalyst. The distribution across higher bins reflects residual uncertainty over possible late-week statements on ongoing international issues.