Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 22 centers on the 56–61°F range due to National Weather Service and model guidance projecting overnight lows near 57–59°F amid typical marine-layer conditions. Persistent onshore flow and coastal stratus have maintained this pattern recently, aligning with August climatology where daily lows average 57°F and rarely stray outside 54–61°F. Minor variations in wind speed, fog clearance timing, and boundary-layer mixing create the tight spread among leading bins, while lower probabilities for sub-56°F or 62°F+ outcomes reflect limited potential for significant deviations absent a stronger offshore flow or heat advection. Updated model runs and NWS briefings remain key near-term catalysts.