**Marine layer persistence and typical summer onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco's August 21 low near the long-term average.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private sources project overnight lows in the upper 50s (around 56–57°F), consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 55.9°F for the date. The cold California Current, combined with a marine layer near 1,500 feet and steady west-northwest winds of 10–20 mph, promotes efficient radiational cooling under cloudy or foggy conditions without allowing significant inland warming. Recent August 2026 observations show similar patterns, with daily lows predominantly in the mid- to upper 50s and no anomalous heat or suppressed marine influence emerging in model guidance. This keeps probabilities concentrated on 54–59°F outcomes, reflecting the low likelihood of records (historical minimum 50°F) or warmer deviations given the entrenched stratus and onshore regime. Traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast spread and climatological reliability heavily, with minimal movement expected absent a sudden shift in the upper-level trough or wind patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月21日旧金山最低气温？
8月21日旧金山最低气温？
58-59°F 33%
54-55°F 28%
56-57°F 28%
52-53°F 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
49°F or below
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
16%
54-55°F
28%
56-57°F
28%
58-59°F
33%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68°F or higher
<1%
58-59°F 33%
54-55°F 28%
56-57°F 28%
52-53°F 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
49°F or below
$245 交易量
<1%
50-51°F
$126 交易量
<1%
52-53°F
$138 交易量
16%
54-55°F
$0 交易量
28%
56-57°F
$2 交易量
28%
58-59°F
$11 交易量
33%
60-61°F
$343 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$169 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$166 交易量
<1%
66-67°F
$372 交易量
<1%
68°F or higher
$343 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Marine layer persistence and typical summer onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco's August 21 low near the long-term average.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private sources project overnight lows in the upper 50s (around 56–57°F), consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 55.9°F for the date. The cold California Current, combined with a marine layer near 1,500 feet and steady west-northwest winds of 10–20 mph, promotes efficient radiational cooling under cloudy or foggy conditions without allowing significant inland warming.
Recent August 2026 observations show similar patterns, with daily lows predominantly in the mid- to upper 50s and no anomalous heat or suppressed marine influence emerging in model guidance. This keeps probabilities concentrated on 54–59°F outcomes, reflecting the low likelihood of records (historical minimum 50°F) or warmer deviations given the entrenched stratus and onshore regime. Traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast spread and climatological reliability heavily, with minimal movement expected absent a sudden shift in the upper-level trough or wind patterns.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
交易量
$1,917结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Marine layer persistence and typical summer onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco's August 21 low near the long-term average.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private sources project overnight lows in the upper 50s (around 56–57°F), consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 55.9°F for the date. The cold California Current, combined with a marine layer near 1,500 feet and steady west-northwest winds of 10–20 mph, promotes efficient radiational cooling under cloudy or foggy conditions without allowing significant inland warming.
Recent August 2026 observations show similar patterns, with daily lows predominantly in the mid- to upper 50s and no anomalous heat or suppressed marine influence emerging in model guidance. This keeps probabilities concentrated on 54–59°F outcomes, reflecting the low likelihood of records (historical minimum 50°F) or warmer deviations given the entrenched stratus and onshore regime. Traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast spread and climatological reliability heavily, with minimal movement expected absent a sudden shift in the upper-level trough or wind patterns.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,917结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ET**Marine layer persistence and typical summer onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco's August 21 low near the long-term average.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private sources project overnight lows in the upper 50s (around 56–57°F), consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 55.9°F for the date. The cold California Current, combined with a marine layer near 1,500 feet and steady west-northwest winds of 10–20 mph, promotes efficient radiational cooling under cloudy or foggy conditions without allowing significant inland warming. Recent August 2026 observations show similar patterns, with daily lows predominantly in the mid- to upper 50s and no anomalous heat or suppressed marine influence emerging in model guidance. This keeps probabilities concentrated on 54–59°F outcomes, reflecting the low likelihood of records (historical minimum 50°F) or warmer deviations given the entrenched stratus and onshore regime. Traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast spread and climatological reliability heavily, with minimal movement expected absent a sudden shift in the upper-level trough or wind patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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