Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 23 will likely settle near 31–32 °C, with tight clustering around these values driving the near-even market-implied odds. Subtropical monsoon conditions, residual moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon, and variable cloud cover create small but decisive differences in daytime heating; urban heat-island effects and light wind regimes can add 0.5–1 °C locally. Model spread remains modest, reflecting typical late-August variability rather than a strong synoptic driver, while upcoming CMA and ECMWF runs plus satellite-derived surface observations will further narrow the range before resolution. Traders’ capital-weighted consensus therefore captures genuine forecast uncertainty between these two closely matched outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月23日深圳气温最高？
8月23日深圳气温最高？
32°C 29%
31°C 29%
33°C 16%
30°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
13%
30°C
16%
31°C
29%
32°C
29%
33°C
16%
34°C
8%
35°C or higher
1%
32°C 29%
31°C 29%
33°C 16%
30°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
25°C or below
$176 交易量
<1%
26°C
$176 交易量
<1%
27°C
$277 交易量
1%
28°C
$49 交易量
4%
29°C
$45 交易量
13%
30°C
$0 交易量
16%
31°C
$0 交易量
29%
32°C
$8 交易量
29%
33°C
$0 交易量
16%
34°C
$139 交易量
8%
35°C or higher
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 23 will likely settle near 31–32 °C, with tight clustering around these values driving the near-even market-implied odds. Subtropical monsoon conditions, residual moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon, and variable cloud cover create small but decisive differences in daytime heating; urban heat-island effects and light wind regimes can add 0.5–1 °C locally. Model spread remains modest, reflecting typical late-August variability rather than a strong synoptic driver, while upcoming CMA and ECMWF runs plus satellite-derived surface observations will further narrow the range before resolution. Traders’ capital-weighted consensus therefore captures genuine forecast uncertainty between these two closely matched outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$870结束日期
2026-08-23市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 23 will likely settle near 31–32 °C, with tight clustering around these values driving the near-even market-implied odds. Subtropical monsoon conditions, residual moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon, and variable cloud cover create small but decisive differences in daytime heating; urban heat-island effects and light wind regimes can add 0.5–1 °C locally. Model spread remains modest, reflecting typical late-August variability rather than a strong synoptic driver, while upcoming CMA and ECMWF runs plus satellite-derived surface observations will further narrow the range before resolution. Traders’ capital-weighted consensus therefore captures genuine forecast uncertainty between these two closely matched outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$870结束日期
2026-08-23市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 23 will likely settle near 31–32 °C, with tight clustering around these values driving the near-even market-implied odds. Subtropical monsoon conditions, residual moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon, and variable cloud cover create small but decisive differences in daytime heating; urban heat-island effects and light wind regimes can add 0.5–1 °C locally. Model spread remains modest, reflecting typical late-August variability rather than a strong synoptic driver, while upcoming CMA and ECMWF runs plus satellite-derived surface observations will further narrow the range before resolution. Traders’ capital-weighted consensus therefore captures genuine forecast uncertainty between these two closely matched outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题