Current forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble runs place Seoul’s overnight low for May 22 near the 14–16 °C range under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with mid-May climatology at the Seoul Central Observatory, where minimum temperatures typically fall between 12 °C and 16 °C. The tightly matched market-implied odds across outcomes reflect modest model spread on cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture, both of which can shift the realized minimum by 1–2 °C. Updated model guidance expected within the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of the May 22 observation window.