Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.8% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing no disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851—compounded by current conditions: marginal sea surface temperatures, strong vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, and dry mid-level air stifling organization. While rapid genesis remains theoretically possible from an unforeseen tropical wave, daily NHC updates through month's end will monitor any shifts in model guidance or satellite observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$49,148 交易量
$49,148 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$49,148 交易量
$49,148 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.8% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing no disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851—compounded by current conditions: marginal sea surface temperatures, strong vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, and dry mid-level air stifling organization. While rapid genesis remains theoretically possible from an unforeseen tropical wave, daily NHC updates through month's end will monitor any shifts in model guidance or satellite observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
市场开放时间： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
交易量
$49,148结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.8% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing no disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851—compounded by current conditions: marginal sea surface temperatures, strong vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, and dry mid-level air stifling organization. While rapid genesis remains theoretically possible from an unforeseen tropical wave, daily NHC updates through month's end will monitor any shifts in model guidance or satellite observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
交易量
$49,148结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.8% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing no disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851—compounded by current conditions: marginal sea surface temperatures, strong vertical wind shear from an emerging El Niño pattern, and dry mid-level air stifling organization. While rapid genesis remains theoretically possible from an unforeseen tropical wave, daily NHC updates through month's end will monitor any shifts in model guidance or satellite observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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