Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, combined with above-average Arctic surface temperatures and early melt onset in marginal seas, drives trader consensus toward a September minimum between 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice from prior seasons and regional contrasts—stronger melt on the Atlantic side versus slower retreat in the Pacific—create uncertainty around exact outcomes. NSIDC and JAXA observations through early August show extents tracking near or below 2025 levels, while model projections from spring place the likely minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Key variables include late-summer air and ocean temperatures plus wind patterns that could accelerate or slow final melt. Updated forecasts and satellite data releases through September will refine these probabilities as conditions evolve.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
420万-440万平方公里 29.6%
440万-460万平方公里 26.9%
460万-480万平方公里 17.5%
少于400万平方公里 14%
$66,070 交易量
$66,070 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
14%
400-420万平方公里
12%
420万-440万平方公里
30%
440万-460万平方公里
27%
460万-480万平方公里
18%
480万-500万平方公里
3%
500万平方公里以上
6%
420万-440万平方公里 29.6%
440万-460万平方公里 26.9%
460万-480万平方公里 17.5%
少于400万平方公里 14%
$66,070 交易量
$66,070 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
$30,155 交易量
14%
400-420万平方公里
$6,417 交易量
12%
420万-440万平方公里
$2,755 交易量
30%
440万-460万平方公里
$3,025 交易量
27%
460万-480万平方公里
$6,583 交易量
18%
480万-500万平方公里
$2,778 交易量
3%
500万平方公里以上
$14,356 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, combined with above-average Arctic surface temperatures and early melt onset in marginal seas, drives trader consensus toward a September minimum between 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice from prior seasons and regional contrasts—stronger melt on the Atlantic side versus slower retreat in the Pacific—create uncertainty around exact outcomes. NSIDC and JAXA observations through early August show extents tracking near or below 2025 levels, while model projections from spring place the likely minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Key variables include late-summer air and ocean temperatures plus wind patterns that could accelerate or slow final melt. Updated forecasts and satellite data releases through September will refine these probabilities as conditions evolve.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$66,070结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, combined with above-average Arctic surface temperatures and early melt onset in marginal seas, drives trader consensus toward a September minimum between 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice from prior seasons and regional contrasts—stronger melt on the Atlantic side versus slower retreat in the Pacific—create uncertainty around exact outcomes. NSIDC and JAXA observations through early August show extents tracking near or below 2025 levels, while model projections from spring place the likely minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Key variables include late-summer air and ocean temperatures plus wind patterns that could accelerate or slow final melt. Updated forecasts and satellite data releases through September will refine these probabilities as conditions evolve.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$66,070结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, combined with above-average Arctic surface temperatures and early melt onset in marginal seas, drives trader consensus toward a September minimum between 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice from prior seasons and regional contrasts—stronger melt on the Atlantic side versus slower retreat in the Pacific—create uncertainty around exact outcomes. NSIDC and JAXA observations through early August show extents tracking near or below 2025 levels, while model projections from spring place the likely minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Key variables include late-summer air and ocean temperatures plus wind patterns that could accelerate or slow final melt. Updated forecasts and satellite data releases through September will refine these probabilities as conditions evolve.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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