OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9 月 3 日 46.1%
截至9月30日未发布 10%
在 9 月 2 日或之前 8.0%
9 月 13 日 5%
最新
$21,338 交易量
最新
$21,338 交易量
2026-09-02
在 9 月 2 日或之前
26%
9 月 3 日
46%
9月4日
2%
9 月 5 日
2%
9月6日
2%
9 月 7 日
3%
9 月 8 日
3%
9 月 9 日
2%
9月10日
2%
9 月 11 日
1%
9 月 12 日
1%
9 月 13 日
5%
9 月 14 日
1%
9 月 15 日
1%
9 月 16 日
1%
9月17日
1%
9 月 18 日
1%
9 月 19 日
1%
9 月 20 日
1%
9 月 21 日
2%
9 月 22 日
1%
9 月 23 日
2%
9月24日
2%
9月25日
3%
9 月 26 日
2%
9 月 27 日
4%
9 月 28 日
3%
9月29日
1%
9 月 30 日
1%
截至9月30日未发布
12%
9 月 3 日 46.1%
截至9月30日未发布 10%
在 9 月 2 日或之前 8.0%
9 月 13 日 5%
最新
$21,338 交易量
最新
$21,338 交易量
2026-09-02
在 9 月 2 日或之前
$1,263 交易量
26%
9 月 3 日
$1,330 交易量
46%
9月4日
$921 交易量
2%
9 月 5 日
$526 交易量
2%
9月6日
$525 交易量
2%
9 月 7 日
$520 交易量
3%
9 月 8 日
$520 交易量
3%
9 月 9 日
$520 交易量
2%
9月10日
$440 交易量
2%
9 月 11 日
$733 交易量
1%
9 月 12 日
$733 交易量
1%
9 月 13 日
$657 交易量
5%
9 月 14 日
$733 交易量
1%
9 月 15 日
$950 交易量
1%
9 月 16 日
$628 交易量
1%
9月17日
$452 交易量
1%
9 月 18 日
$755 交易量
1%
9 月 19 日
$755 交易量
1%
9 月 20 日
$755 交易量
1%
9 月 21 日
$462 交易量
2%
9 月 22 日
$755 交易量
1%
9 月 23 日
$462 交易量
2%
9月24日
$859 交易量
2%
9月25日
$462 交易量
3%
9 月 26 日
$462 交易量
2%
9 月 27 日
$939 交易量
4%
9 月 28 日
$462 交易量
3%
9月29日
$755 交易量
1%
9 月 30 日
$765 交易量
1%
截至9月30日未发布
$1,239 交易量
12%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
交易量
$21,338结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETOn August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$21,338结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETOpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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