**The 94.5% implied probability on "No" for H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) being signed into law in 2026 reflects the bill's repeated House passage without Senate advancement.** The original H.R. 22 passed the House in April 2025 and moved to the Senate, where it has remained stalled. Subsequent House versions, including one on February 11, 2026 (218-213), and attempts to embed provisions in the NDAA or other measures in July 2026, have followed the same pattern. Senate rules require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. With Republicans holding 53 seats, the measure needs Democratic support that has not materialized, as evidenced by votes against cloture and public opposition from key senators. No conference report or final passage has occurred, and the 119th Congress faces limited remaining legislative days before the 2026 midterms. Traders view these structural barriers—partisan divide, procedural thresholds, and lack of momentum—as making enactment before year-end highly unlikely, consistent with the bill's history of House-only success.