Ongoing military operations between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces continue to block progress toward any ceasefire, with recent RSF advances encircling El Obeid in North Kordofan and fresh displacements in West Darfur. International mediation efforts, including Quad-led proposals for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by negotiations, have faced repeated rejections or boycotts from key factions, while territorial control remains largely static. Escalating humanitarian needs, drone strikes, and sanctions tied to recruitment networks underscore the absence of political will for de-escalation. Traders assess low near-term odds absent verifiable breakthroughs in stalled talks or major battlefield shifts before any resolution deadline.