Tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border remain elevated five months after a December 2025 ceasefire ended weeks of artillery exchanges, rocket fire, and Thai air strikes that displaced over 400,000 civilians. The long-standing territorial dispute near Preah Vihear and other frontier zones continues to drive bilateral friction, with Thailand maintaining superior air capabilities and both sides accusing each other of minor violations, including a January 2026 mortar incident. Diplomatic channels through ASEAN and direct military talks have so far prevented renewed large-scale operations, keeping trader-implied probabilities of fresh strikes low through mid-2026. Upcoming border demarcation meetings and any flare-ups from displaced populations could still shift sentiment if incidents escalate beyond the current fragile truce.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$68,875 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
7%
$68,875 交易量
2026年6月30日
$24,462 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.Tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border remain elevated five months after a December 2025 ceasefire ended weeks of artillery exchanges, rocket fire, and Thai air strikes that displaced over 400,000 civilians. The long-standing territorial dispute near Preah Vihear and other frontier zones continues to drive bilateral friction, with Thailand maintaining superior air capabilities and both sides accusing each other of minor violations, including a January 2026 mortar incident. Diplomatic channels through ASEAN and direct military talks have so far prevented renewed large-scale operations, keeping trader-implied probabilities of fresh strikes low through mid-2026. Upcoming border demarcation meetings and any flare-ups from displaced populations could still shift sentiment if incidents escalate beyond the current fragile truce.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ET
交易量
$68,875结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.Tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border remain elevated five months after a December 2025 ceasefire ended weeks of artillery exchanges, rocket fire, and Thai air strikes that displaced over 400,000 civilians. The long-standing territorial dispute near Preah Vihear and other frontier zones continues to drive bilateral friction, with Thailand maintaining superior air capabilities and both sides accusing each other of minor violations, including a January 2026 mortar incident. Diplomatic channels through ASEAN and direct military talks have so far prevented renewed large-scale operations, keeping trader-implied probabilities of fresh strikes low through mid-2026. Upcoming border demarcation meetings and any flare-ups from displaced populations could still shift sentiment if incidents escalate beyond the current fragile truce.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
交易量
$68,875结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border remain elevated five months after a December 2025 ceasefire ended weeks of artillery exchanges, rocket fire, and Thai air strikes that displaced over 400,000 civilians. The long-standing territorial dispute near Preah Vihear and other frontier zones continues to drive bilateral friction, with Thailand maintaining superior air capabilities and both sides accusing each other of minor violations, including a January 2026 mortar incident. Diplomatic channels through ASEAN and direct military talks have so far prevented renewed large-scale operations, keeping trader-implied probabilities of fresh strikes low through mid-2026. Upcoming border demarcation meetings and any flare-ups from displaced populations could still shift sentiment if incidents escalate beyond the current fragile truce.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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