Redistricting last year transformed Texas's 32nd district into a Republican-leaning seat with an R+8 partisan voting index, shifting it from Democratic control after the prior incumbent relocated to another district. This structural change, combined with a crowded Republican primary that produced Jace Yarbrough as the nominee following Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, has consolidated GOP support ahead of the November general election. Yarbrough's endorsement by President Trump further bolsters his position in the redrawn North Texas district stretching toward East Texas. Traders' consensus reflects these factors through the Republican Party's 56 percent implied probability, though the outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics that could influence the final margin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$26,076 交易量
$26,076 交易量
2026-11-04
共和党
57%
民主党
31%
$26,076 交易量
$26,076 交易量
2026-11-04
共和党
$25,719 交易量
57%
民主党
$357 交易量
31%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting last year transformed Texas's 32nd district into a Republican-leaning seat with an R+8 partisan voting index, shifting it from Democratic control after the prior incumbent relocated to another district. This structural change, combined with a crowded Republican primary that produced Jace Yarbrough as the nominee following Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, has consolidated GOP support ahead of the November general election. Yarbrough's endorsement by President Trump further bolsters his position in the redrawn North Texas district stretching toward East Texas. Traders' consensus reflects these factors through the Republican Party's 56 percent implied probability, though the outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics that could influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
交易量
$26,076结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting last year transformed Texas's 32nd district into a Republican-leaning seat with an R+8 partisan voting index, shifting it from Democratic control after the prior incumbent relocated to another district. This structural change, combined with a crowded Republican primary that produced Jace Yarbrough as the nominee following Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, has consolidated GOP support ahead of the November general election. Yarbrough's endorsement by President Trump further bolsters his position in the redrawn North Texas district stretching toward East Texas. Traders' consensus reflects these factors through the Republican Party's 56 percent implied probability, though the outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics that could influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$26,076结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting last year transformed Texas's 32nd district into a Republican-leaning seat with an R+8 partisan voting index, shifting it from Democratic control after the prior incumbent relocated to another district. This structural change, combined with a crowded Republican primary that produced Jace Yarbrough as the nominee following Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, has consolidated GOP support ahead of the November general election. Yarbrough's endorsement by President Trump further bolsters his position in the redrawn North Texas district stretching toward East Texas. Traders' consensus reflects these factors through the Republican Party's 56 percent implied probability, though the outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics that could influence the final margin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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