Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 89.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's longstanding status as a safe Republican stronghold with a strong incumbent advantage. Rep. Scott DesJarlais, first elected in 2010, announced his reelection bid amid a competitive GOP primary featuring challengers like Robert Arnold and Thomas Davis ahead of the August 6 primary; he prevailed easily in 2024 despite past controversies. The district's conservative lean—evident in lopsided past general election margins—was reinforced last week when Tennessee Republican lawmakers approved a new congressional map, solidifying GOP dominance across the state's nine districts and diminishing Democratic paths to victory. No major polling exists yet, but historical voting patterns and weak Democratic challengers sustain the wide Republican lead ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
90%
民主党
10%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$2,257 交易量
90%
民主党
$4,410 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 89.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's longstanding status as a safe Republican stronghold with a strong incumbent advantage. Rep. Scott DesJarlais, first elected in 2010, announced his reelection bid amid a competitive GOP primary featuring challengers like Robert Arnold and Thomas Davis ahead of the August 6 primary; he prevailed easily in 2024 despite past controversies. The district's conservative lean—evident in lopsided past general election margins—was reinforced last week when Tennessee Republican lawmakers approved a new congressional map, solidifying GOP dominance across the state's nine districts and diminishing Democratic paths to victory. No major polling exists yet, but historical voting patterns and weak Democratic challengers sustain the wide Republican lead ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$6,668结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 89.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's longstanding status as a safe Republican stronghold with a strong incumbent advantage. Rep. Scott DesJarlais, first elected in 2010, announced his reelection bid amid a competitive GOP primary featuring challengers like Robert Arnold and Thomas Davis ahead of the August 6 primary; he prevailed easily in 2024 despite past controversies. The district's conservative lean—evident in lopsided past general election margins—was reinforced last week when Tennessee Republican lawmakers approved a new congressional map, solidifying GOP dominance across the state's nine districts and diminishing Democratic paths to victory. No major polling exists yet, but historical voting patterns and weak Democratic challengers sustain the wide Republican lead ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$6,668结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 89.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's longstanding status as a safe Republican stronghold with a strong incumbent advantage. Rep. Scott DesJarlais, first elected in 2010, announced his reelection bid amid a competitive GOP primary featuring challengers like Robert Arnold and Thomas Davis ahead of the August 6 primary; he prevailed easily in 2024 despite past controversies. The district's conservative lean—evident in lopsided past general election margins—was reinforced last week when Tennessee Republican lawmakers approved a new congressional map, solidifying GOP dominance across the state's nine districts and diminishing Democratic paths to victory. No major polling exists yet, but historical voting patterns and weak Democratic challengers sustain the wide Republican lead ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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