Traders assign Anthropic an 89.5% implied probability of holding the top-ranked AI model by end of May, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated leading performance in style control benchmarks and independent evaluations. This consensus reflects Anthropic's competitive edge over rivals like Google at 6.5% and OpenAI at 1.1%, where recent updates have not yet shifted measurable capabilities enough to close the gap. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on verifiable leaderboard criteria, acknowledging that product timelines and third-party assessments can still introduce last-minute shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$628,565 交易量
$628,565 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
90%
7%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$628,565 交易量
$628,565 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$59,018 交易量
90%
$68,218 交易量
7%
OpenAI
$37,845 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$74,151 交易量
<1%
Meta
$41,782 交易量
<1%
xAI
$56,621 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$29,953 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic an 89.5% implied probability of holding the top-ranked AI model by end of May, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated leading performance in style control benchmarks and independent evaluations. This consensus reflects Anthropic's competitive edge over rivals like Google at 6.5% and OpenAI at 1.1%, where recent updates have not yet shifted measurable capabilities enough to close the gap. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on verifiable leaderboard criteria, acknowledging that product timelines and third-party assessments can still introduce last-minute shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$628,565结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic an 89.5% implied probability of holding the top-ranked AI model by end of May, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated leading performance in style control benchmarks and independent evaluations. This consensus reflects Anthropic's competitive edge over rivals like Google at 6.5% and OpenAI at 1.1%, where recent updates have not yet shifted measurable capabilities enough to close the gap. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on verifiable leaderboard criteria, acknowledging that product timelines and third-party assessments can still introduce last-minute shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$628,565结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Anthropic an 89.5% implied probability of holding the top-ranked AI model by end of May, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated leading performance in style control benchmarks and independent evaluations. This consensus reflects Anthropic's competitive edge over rivals like Google at 6.5% and OpenAI at 1.1%, where recent updates have not yet shifted measurable capabilities enough to close the gap. The market aggregates real-capital sentiment on verifiable leaderboard criteria, acknowledging that product timelines and third-party assessments can still introduce last-minute shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题