Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release has solidified its edge in key benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and safety alignment, driving the market's overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for the company holding the top large language model by end of May. Traders cite strong results on SWE-bench, GPQA Diamond, and specialized agent evaluations as the main catalyst, outpacing incremental updates from Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants that trail in composite scores. The competitive landscape remains tight among frontier labs, yet Anthropic's focus on reliable tool use and reduced hallucination has shifted sentiment ahead of the imminent resolution. Any surprise model drop from rivals could still alter the outcome, but current verified capabilities favor sustained leadership.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$628,676 交易量
$628,676 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
90%
7%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 7%
OpenAI 1.1%
Alibaba <1%
$628,676 交易量
$628,676 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$59,056 交易量
90%
$68,218 交易量
7%
OpenAI
$37,845 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$74,151 交易量
<1%
Meta
$41,792 交易量
<1%
xAI
$56,640 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$29,960 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release has solidified its edge in key benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and safety alignment, driving the market's overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for the company holding the top large language model by end of May. Traders cite strong results on SWE-bench, GPQA Diamond, and specialized agent evaluations as the main catalyst, outpacing incremental updates from Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants that trail in composite scores. The competitive landscape remains tight among frontier labs, yet Anthropic's focus on reliable tool use and reduced hallucination has shifted sentiment ahead of the imminent resolution. Any surprise model drop from rivals could still alter the outcome, but current verified capabilities favor sustained leadership.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$628,676结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release has solidified its edge in key benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and safety alignment, driving the market's overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for the company holding the top large language model by end of May. Traders cite strong results on SWE-bench, GPQA Diamond, and specialized agent evaluations as the main catalyst, outpacing incremental updates from Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants that trail in composite scores. The competitive landscape remains tight among frontier labs, yet Anthropic's focus on reliable tool use and reduced hallucination has shifted sentiment ahead of the imminent resolution. Any surprise model drop from rivals could still alter the outcome, but current verified capabilities favor sustained leadership.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$628,676结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release has solidified its edge in key benchmarks for coding, agentic workflows, and safety alignment, driving the market's overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for the company holding the top large language model by end of May. Traders cite strong results on SWE-bench, GPQA Diamond, and specialized agent evaluations as the main catalyst, outpacing incremental updates from Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants that trail in composite scores. The competitive landscape remains tight among frontier labs, yet Anthropic's focus on reliable tool use and reduced hallucination has shifted sentiment ahead of the imminent resolution. Any surprise model drop from rivals could still alter the outcome, but current verified capabilities favor sustained leadership.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题