Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense 2026 report assessed that the People's Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious landing, sustainment, and multi-axis control capabilities for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Military aircraft sorties and incursions around the island have declined markedly in 2026 compared with prior years, while Beijing has emphasized blockade rehearsals and gray-zone pressure over large-scale exercises. Ongoing senior officer purges have further disrupted PLA command readiness. These developments, alongside active U.S.-China diplomatic engagement ahead of the September 2026 leaders' summit, underpin trader expectations that an invasion remains unlikely before the end of 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
12% 概率
$3,236,842 交易量
$3,236,842 交易量
2027-12-31
赚 3.25% 收益
是
12% 概率
$3,236,842 交易量
$3,236,842 交易量
2027-12-31
赚 3.25% 收益
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense 2026 report assessed that the People's Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious landing, sustainment, and multi-axis control capabilities for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Military aircraft sorties and incursions around the island have declined markedly in 2026 compared with prior years, while Beijing has emphasized blockade rehearsals and gray-zone pressure over large-scale exercises. Ongoing senior officer purges have further disrupted PLA command readiness. These developments, alongside active U.S.-China diplomatic engagement ahead of the September 2026 leaders' summit, underpin trader expectations that an invasion remains unlikely before the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$3,236,842结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense 2026 report assessed that the People's Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious landing, sustainment, and multi-axis control capabilities for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Military aircraft sorties and incursions around the island have declined markedly in 2026 compared with prior years, while Beijing has emphasized blockade rehearsals and gray-zone pressure over large-scale exercises. Ongoing senior officer purges have further disrupted PLA command readiness. These developments, alongside active U.S.-China diplomatic engagement ahead of the September 2026 leaders' summit, underpin trader expectations that an invasion remains unlikely before the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$3,236,842结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense 2026 report assessed that the People's Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious landing, sustainment, and multi-axis control capabilities for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Military aircraft sorties and incursions around the island have declined markedly in 2026 compared with prior years, while Beijing has emphasized blockade rehearsals and gray-zone pressure over large-scale exercises. Ongoing senior officer purges have further disrupted PLA command readiness. These developments, alongside active U.S.-China diplomatic engagement ahead of the September 2026 leaders' summit, underpin trader expectations that an invasion remains unlikely before the end of 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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