Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes on Iranian targets through early 2026 and a broader pattern of direct military exchanges since 2024, have eliminated any near-term path to restored diplomatic ties. No formal relations have existed since 1979, and the current environment of proxy confrontations, nuclear disputes, and regional security threats reinforces trader expectations that an Israeli embassy reopening by year-end remains improbable. Other nations have resumed limited diplomatic presence in Tehran after temporary closures, yet bilateral conditions for Israel show no comparable thaw. This sustained adversarial posture underpins the 91.5 percent implied probability against reopening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$51,779 交易量
$51,779 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$51,779 交易量
$51,779 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes on Iranian targets through early 2026 and a broader pattern of direct military exchanges since 2024, have eliminated any near-term path to restored diplomatic ties. No formal relations have existed since 1979, and the current environment of proxy confrontations, nuclear disputes, and regional security threats reinforces trader expectations that an Israeli embassy reopening by year-end remains improbable. Other nations have resumed limited diplomatic presence in Tehran after temporary closures, yet bilateral conditions for Israel show no comparable thaw. This sustained adversarial posture underpins the 91.5 percent implied probability against reopening.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
交易量
$51,779结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes on Iranian targets through early 2026 and a broader pattern of direct military exchanges since 2024, have eliminated any near-term path to restored diplomatic ties. No formal relations have existed since 1979, and the current environment of proxy confrontations, nuclear disputes, and regional security threats reinforces trader expectations that an Israeli embassy reopening by year-end remains improbable. Other nations have resumed limited diplomatic presence in Tehran after temporary closures, yet bilateral conditions for Israel show no comparable thaw. This sustained adversarial posture underpins the 91.5 percent implied probability against reopening.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$51,779结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes on Iranian targets through early 2026 and a broader pattern of direct military exchanges since 2024, have eliminated any near-term path to restored diplomatic ties. No formal relations have existed since 1979, and the current environment of proxy confrontations, nuclear disputes, and regional security threats reinforces trader expectations that an Israeli embassy reopening by year-end remains improbable. Other nations have resumed limited diplomatic presence in Tehran after temporary closures, yet bilateral conditions for Israel show no comparable thaw. This sustained adversarial posture underpins the 91.5 percent implied probability against reopening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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