Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes launched in February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and military sites, followed by repeated missile exchanges, ceasefires, and renewed escalations over the Strait of Hormuz into August, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Iran and Israel have maintained no formal relations or embassies since 1979, and the active state of hostilities—with ongoing strikes, territorial disputes in Lebanon and elsewhere, and threats against energy infrastructure—keeps any embassy reopening in Tehran off the table for the remainder of 2026. Trader consensus at 96.7% reflects this structural barrier, though a sudden comprehensive peace agreement or regime-level shift in Tehran could theoretically alter timelines before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$193,377 交易量
$193,377 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$193,377 交易量
$193,377 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes launched in February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and military sites, followed by repeated missile exchanges, ceasefires, and renewed escalations over the Strait of Hormuz into August, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Iran and Israel have maintained no formal relations or embassies since 1979, and the active state of hostilities—with ongoing strikes, territorial disputes in Lebanon and elsewhere, and threats against energy infrastructure—keeps any embassy reopening in Tehran off the table for the remainder of 2026. Trader consensus at 96.7% reflects this structural barrier, though a sudden comprehensive peace agreement or regime-level shift in Tehran could theoretically alter timelines before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
交易量
$193,377结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes launched in February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and military sites, followed by repeated missile exchanges, ceasefires, and renewed escalations over the Strait of Hormuz into August, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Iran and Israel have maintained no formal relations or embassies since 1979, and the active state of hostilities—with ongoing strikes, territorial disputes in Lebanon and elsewhere, and threats against energy infrastructure—keeps any embassy reopening in Tehran off the table for the remainder of 2026. Trader consensus at 96.7% reflects this structural barrier, though a sudden comprehensive peace agreement or regime-level shift in Tehran could theoretically alter timelines before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$193,377结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes launched in February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and military sites, followed by repeated missile exchanges, ceasefires, and renewed escalations over the Strait of Hormuz into August, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Iran and Israel have maintained no formal relations or embassies since 1979, and the active state of hostilities—with ongoing strikes, territorial disputes in Lebanon and elsewhere, and threats against energy infrastructure—keeps any embassy reopening in Tehran off the table for the remainder of 2026. Trader consensus at 96.7% reflects this structural barrier, though a sudden comprehensive peace agreement or regime-level shift in Tehran could theoretically alter timelines before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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