Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut its overnight policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, accompanied by explicit forward guidance that the current level is now appropriate, has anchored trader expectations for a hold at the June 25 meeting. The split 3-2 vote, upward revisions to near-term headline inflation forecasts driven by non-core pressures, and Q1 economic contraction that widened output slack all reinforce the view that further easing is unlikely absent clearer disinflation progress toward the 3 percent target. Geopolitical and trade uncertainties add caution, keeping the rate path data-dependent. A sharper decline in core inflation readings or a pronounced growth rebound could still prompt reassessment, though the board’s post-May communications have narrowed the scope for near-term policy shifts.