Recent forecasts from Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate a daytime maximum near 15°C for Buenos Aires on May 16, consistent with the market’s leading implied probability. A post-frontal air mass and moderate southerly flow are limiting surface heating, holding temperatures 2–4°C below the May climatological average of 17–19°C. Ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF models cluster tightly around this value, yet variable cloud cover introduces a 1–2°C uncertainty band that sustains competitive probabilities for 14°C and 16°C. Afternoon SMN updates and real-time observations at the official resolution station will determine whether the peak settles at the central forecast or shifts within that narrow range.