Current meteorological models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show a modest high-pressure ridge building over northern Italy on May 17, supporting maximum temperatures in Milan near 21–22 °C. Ensemble guidance remains tightly clustered around these values because daytime cloud cover and light northerly flow are expected to limit stronger warming, while May’s typical solar insolation and urban heat-island effects keep readings from falling much below 20 °C. Minor differences in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any passing weak front create the narrow spread between the two leading outcomes, with only small probabilities assigned to 23 °C or higher if skies clear earlier than anticipated. Updated runs later today will refine the precise peak, directly informing trader adjustments before the market resolves.