Recent forecast model runs place Milan’s May 18 maximum near 20–22 °C, a value just below the mid-May climatological average of 22 °C, as a lingering upper-level trough and northerly flow maintain cloud cover and limit diurnal heating across the Po Valley. ECMWF and GFS ensembles show modest afternoon clearing that could push the peak to 22 °C if solar radiation increases, while persistent showers or stronger advection would cap readings at 20 °C or below. These tight spreads explain the market’s clustered pricing around 20–22 °C and the sharp drop-off above 24 °C, reflecting traders’ assessment of model consensus, surface observations from Linate and Malpensa, and the short lead time before resolution.